We are less than a year from the 2018 World Cup in Russia (yes it is still going to happen), and the qualifying is starting to heat up. I have the honour of looking through the UEFA qualifying pools and trying to look through the crystal ball to give predictions on who will make it through to the big event.
The UEFA teams were initially divided into seven groups of six teams and two groups of five teams, where each team plays all the others in home and away fixtures. After the addition of Kosovo and GIbraltar as full FIFA members, these teams were added to groups H & I to have 9 groups of 6 teams. After the round robin games have been completed, the top teams from each pool qualify for the world cup, and the eight best second placed teams go into a home-and-away knockout round, where the four winners will qualify for Russia. To determine the top 8, all games against the bottom ranked side in each group do not count in the final points. This is shown somewhat clearer in the image below.
Now that is cleared up, let us look at the groups.
Group A
Group A is proving to be a bit of a pool of death, with France, Sweden, the Netherlands and Bulgaria all in with a shot of qualifying. So far France is showing good form, having beaten everyone but Belarus (0-0 draw away in Borisov) and Sweden (2-1 loss in Stockholm, after an earlier 2-1 victory in Paris). Sweden are also proving strong, having also beaten everyone bar the loss to France in Paris and a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands in Stockholm early in the tournament. This impressive form sees both Sweden and France as favourites to qualify from the group, with both having a greater than 50% chance of doing so, based on current form. The dutch, however, are having a bit of a tortuous time and are in danger of once more non-qualifying for the world cup, which  will make our orange loving friends cry out in anguish. The Dutch have lost to France, Drawn with Sweden and lost to Bulgaria (2-0 in Sofia), leaving them 3 points off qualification with 4 games remaining. They do get to play Sweden and Bulgaria at home, two wins in those games should be enough to lift them into qualification, even if they lose to France away; as long as the GD between them and Sweden doesn’t get too big. Bulgaria have now lost to France (4-1 in Paris), Sweden (3-0 in Stockholm) and Belarus (2-1 in Borisov), causing them to have a harder time to qualify, having to pick up 4 points in the last 4 games. On their side is the fact that both France and Sweden have to travel to Sofia where Bulgaria have remained undefeated. They will also have to travel to Amsterdam to play The Netherlands, who they probably will also need to beat to qualify or at least beat France and Sweden at home by a good margin and pick up a draw against The Netherlands, but their goal difference needs to improve a lot for that to work.It is probably a bridge too far for the Bulgarians, who also need to play Luxembourg away; which for others in the group isn’t that big a deal, but the Bulgarians have not travelled well and may not secure all three points in Luxembourg to ensure they continue to apply the pressure to the qualification spots.
Group B
Things are simpler in group B, with Switzerland and Portugal blitzing the rest of the field, and are really the only two able to qualify. Switzerland has the advantage for the automatic spot, having beaten Portugal at home 2-0, but Portugal gets the return fixture at the end of the campaign, and with a +19 goal difference will probably just need to win that game to qualify top. All the remaining teams still have a mathematical chance of qualifying, but need each need to win every game and then require either Portugal to lose all remaining games, or in the case of Hungry have Portugal only pick up 3 points and Switzerland to not gain any points. None of these scenarios seem likely, so it seems that the Pool will be decided in Lisbon on the 11th October.
Group C
Germany have all but qualified to Russia as top of group C, with only Northern Ireland, the Czech Republic or Azerbaijan able to catch them, and only Northern Ireland having a realistic chance of doing so, especially since Germany need to travel to Prague and Belfast, but since they have a +26 goal difference, only if Germany lose both games. The race for second place is only slightly closer, but with Northern Ireland with the advantage as the Czechs need to travel to Belfast, after having a 0-0 draw in Prague. Azerbaijan’s chance of overhauling the Czechs and the Northern Irish is pretty slim, having already lost to Northern Ireland twice, they will need to beat everyone else, including a trip to Berlin to face Germany, and hope that Northern Ireland and the Czech Republic lose everything. Beating Germany is also required to ensure they are one of the top 8 2nd placed sides to go through to the next round of qualification; which seems extremely unlikely.Norway also still has a mathematical chance of qualifying, but needs to have lots of games in other pools go their way as well.
Group D
Group D is another close pool, with only 4 points separating 4 teams, and with no team technically eliminated (although for either Moldova or Georgia to actually move to the next stage would be a modern day miracle.) The next match day, on the 3rd September, will likely whittle the field down to 2 probables and 1 possible, as Serbia and the Republic of Ireland play Moldova and Georgia, whilst Wales and Austria play off in Cardiff. Who ever wins in Cardiff will still be in the hunt, but still 4 points behind.
Group E
In group E, Poland is all but qualified as top team, but the second placed spot is still up for grabs. Both Montenegro and Denmark are on 10 points, with Romania and Armenia just 4 points behind. However, the second placed team may still not make it to the next round as one of the top 8 second placed teams. It will be hard for either Montenegro or Denmark to get to the next round, as Montenegro needs to travel to Warsaw, whilst they will host Denmark in Podgorica. They have already lost to Poland at home 2-1, but beaten Denmark 1-0 in Copenhagen. Denmark, however, will host Poland in Copenhagen, after already losing 3-2 in Warsaw. This means that the second place slot is wide open and hard to predict, but does seem to point at whoever is second come mid-october, they don’t seem likely to be in the 8 that will progress to the next round.
Group F
Group F is also close, with England currently on top, followed by Slovakia, Slovenia and Scotland. England look to be the ones most likely to qualify, but their campaign has stalled slightly after a 2-2 draw in Glasgow. However, they will host both Slovakia and Slovenia at Wembley, which should give them the points they need to top the group. Second place will be decided in the new matchday, where Slovakia host Slovenia and Scotland travel to Lithuania. If Slovakia win that game in Trnava then they will take a 4 point lead over Slovenia and Scotland (if Scotland can win in Vilnius), which should be enough to hang on to second place. Although Slovakia will need to travel to Glasgow to play Scotland, whilst the Scots will travel to Ljubljana to play Slovenia. If all three beat Lithuania and Malta (Slovenia has already beaten Malta, and Slovakia beat Lithuania), and the win their home fixtures, then Slovakia will come second behind England, with Slovenia and Scotland tied on points in third. However, there will only be 1 point separating them, so it will come down to those crucial fixtures between the three to determine who slides into second slot, and potentially the next round. All three teams will end up on points that will be at or just above the cut-off for continuing through to the next round, so the number of goals they score will also matter to their chances of progressing.
Group G
Group G is the Spain and Italy show with both teams clearly better than any of the rest in this group. They had a 1-1 draw in Turinin October last year, and are set to meet in Madrid on September 2nd this year. That game will decide the outcome of the group, with whoever wins taking top spot and the loser having to go through another round of qualifiers. However, whoever does come second will likely be one of the top seeds in the next round, so will get an easier path to Russia. If there is another draw in Madrid, then the direct qualification spot will be down to who beats the other teams by the most, with Spain currently holding the edge by 4 whole goals over Italy.
Group H
Group H sees Belgium out in front, with Greece and Bosnia & Herzegovina battling out for second place. However, Belgium still need to travel to Athens and Zenica, so may still lose their lead. If the lose both of these games, and Greece and Bosnia win against Cyprus, Estonia and Gibraltar, then Belgium will not qualify and Greece will go top of the group, with Bosnia in second. Belgium has beaten Bosnia at home, but only drew with Greece, so this possibility is very much something that could become reality. It is more likely that Belgium will pick up points in both of these games, which would be enough
Group I
The final group is Group I, which has a 4 way race to the finish, with Croatia & Iceland 2 points ahead of Turkey and Ukraine. The matches in early september will probably get rid of one of the four, as the Ukraine host Turkey in Kharkov whilst Croatia host Kosovo and Iceland travel to Finland. Ukraine and Turkey drew 2-2 in Konya earlier in qualifying, and as can be seen in the table have pretty much identical records; however, if a draw will not be eithers friends as they attempt to catch Croatia and Iceland. The second set of September games sees Iceland hosting Ukraine and Turkey hosting Croatia, which may be a set of games that make or break this group. That all said, I fancy both Croatia and Iceland to hold their advantage and to keep the top two spots.
NineSixFourTwo 