The Road to Russia

So, another season of football ends and we enter the silly season once more where football addicts such as myself and the fool listen intently for any rumours about new signings, managerial changes and players showing good in pre-season. If that were not enough we go into the final stages of the prelude to the greatest show in the Beautiful Game, the FIFA World Cup. So before we go into our annual preview of the Premiership and other European football leagues, we are going to analyse and get into the business end that is the mammoth campaign to qualify for the Russia 2018.
I myself am going to tackle all the confederations barring UEFA which will be tackled by my erstwhile colleague will tackle the mammoth group that is UEFA. So, without any further delays let’s get onto it. 

COMNEBOL – The South American Adventure

The COMNEBOL qualifying stage is arguably the World Cup’s toughest yet paradoxically gives each country on paper a better mathematical chance of qualifying than any other continent. The group gives 4.5 spots out of ten countries and with the half spot playing off against Oceania’s qualifier it pretty much 5 spots. (Sorry Oceania).

Traditionally Brazil and Argentina have readily qualified from this group leaving the other 8 to battle for the remaining 2.5 spots. Brazil have already become the first team apart from the hosts to qualify for the tournament. But Argentina are struggling in 5th place. Apart from Bolivia and Venezuela who are already eliminated we have 7 other teams all capable of qualifying and also missing out on qualifying.

As anyone can see from the table it is still very, very close. All teams have 4 more games left to play. But I feel Both Paraguay and Peru have to catch up as they both play Colombia, have Peru have Ecuador and Argentina to face and Paraguay have Chile and Uruguay. Neither team has shown anywhere near the form to come away with even a play-off spot they may well play spoiler to someone else. Colombia has been one of the in-form teams and should easily qualify. Their remaining games are against Brazil (who have already qualified) and Paraguay at home and Peru and Venezuela away. They should easily get at least 8 points from those games. Uruguay also have a relatively straightforward path facing arch-rivals Argentina, and Bolivia at home, and facing Venezuela and Paraguay away. A very winnable set of games especially if they can defeat Lionel Messi and Co on matchday 15.

Chile Argentine and Ecuador have a dog fight over the remaining 1.5 spots. As we mentioned Argentina have to go up against Uruguay away and Chile have to go to Brazil, and Ecuador has the ability to overtake both team above them as they play Argentina most likely up in the mountains of Quito and go away to Chile. The Ecuadorians have a terrible away record though they did manage to get one up the Argentines, so they could easily spoil things for the teams above them. It could well come down to goal difference.

My gut feeling is the table will remain the same and Argentina will have to travel to Oceania for the play offs like they did for the 1994 World Cup.

CAF – The Calm before the Storm.

If the South American qualification is entering into their business of the African qualification has only just started its long final phase.  The third and final round has divided the continent into Five groups of four. At this stage of the tournament there are no easy matches and every team are in with a chance.

Group A

In Group A it looks like a head to head of Congo DR, the first team from Sub-Saharan Africa to qualify for the world cup and Tunisia the first African team to win a game in the World Cup finals tournament. These group will probably be decided in the first week of September, when they play against each other home and away. It may well come down to goal difference, so therefore at the moment the Congo DR have the edge.

Group B

Group B on paper looks like a very competitive group, consisting of some of Africa’s strongest sides. At this stage, the Super Eagles from Nigeria have raced ahead, but things could change with four more games to play and great rivals and neighbors the Indomitable Lions from Cameroon yet to play them. Every fan of African football has a soft spot for Cameroon but dropping points early may have already made the gap to catch up too wide, and Nigeria also have an impressive goal difference.

Group C

Group C at the moment is a very open group. Cote D’Ivoire are on top but Morocco and Gabon are only two points behind and are still undefeated. Even Mali has a point on the board and are nowhere near out of it. On paper Cote D’Ivoire are the strongest side, but I am not convinced. This may be the chance for Gabon to make their World Cup debut. Team Captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is one of the hottest properties in World Football at the moment there is a feeling of destiny about this team.

Group D

Group D is the closest with the top 3 side all separated by 1 point between them. This group is completely up in the air. And whilst I am a fan of the Bafana-Bafana and would love to see them qualify I feel once again that this group is going to bring a debutante team into the World Cup finals. Burkina Faso have done well in recent Africa Nations Cups and they are in a group they can easily qualify from.

Group E

Group E is currently topped by the Mighty Pharaohs who have managed to defeat Ghana and Congo with East Africa’s only remaining side Uganda chasing them. I would not count the Black Stars or the Congolese out at this stage but I think Egypt are finally going to break their long World Cup duck and return to the World Cup finals after 28 years.  

AFC – The Fortnight of Fireworks

Group A

The AFC are one of the largest confederations, and with only 4.5 spots are one of the most statistically difficult confederations to qualify from.  This makes it all the more impressive that Iran has streaked and already qualified for the World Cup finals. The rest of their group is heating up with South Korea, Uzbekistan and Syria still within a realistic shot to qualify direct and technically Qatar and China in the running for a play-off spot. South Korea are Asia’s most prolific qualifier when it comes to World Cups but they have a task ahead of as they face Uzbekistan away and Iran at home, whereas Uzbekistan have an away game to China before playing the Red Devils at home. This game on the 5th of September will decide who comes second and who goes into the fourth round play-off.  

Group B

Group B has the top three team all separated by a point. Japan has already guaranteed to reach the play offs, with Iraq and Thailand already eliminated. Japan can take nothing for granted as they will be Saudi Arabia away and then Australia. Australia play Thailand at home before going to their game in Japan, and finally the Saudis play Japan at home and go on to play the UAE away. This group is very close to call. My feeling is that Japan will win one of their games to get a direct qualifying spot and Australia will be able to at least gain a win and a draw, leaving Saudi play off against South Korea or Uzbekistan.

After such a long qualifying campaign, the fourth-round play-off winner must then go on to face the CONCACAF 4th place side. The AFC have traditionally done poorly in these play off. The last time a team from the AFC qualified via intercontinental play offs is when Iran defeated Australia on away goals to qualify for France 1998 almost 20 years ago. And this trend may well continue for 2018 but we will go into this further in CONCACAF analysis.

CONCACAF – The Usual Suspects are all here

The CONCACAF confederation is down to their final 6 teams with only 4 games to go. The Mexicans have a four-point lead over Costa Rica and will need a unlikely series of results for them to not qualify at this stage, and they will almost certainly seize qualification if they beat Panama on 1st September. Costa Rica also have a nice cushion against third placed United States. These two teams will also play each other on 1st September, and even if Costa Rica were to lose they would still have the same points as the USMNT. The US are only a point ahead of Panama who will get to play all the teams above them in the run into the final four games. This is both a good and bad thing as these “six pointer” games could end up pushing them into a direct qualifying spot. What might give the US a bit of an edge is the fact that they play their game against Panama at home and they also have a +3-goal difference.

That being said finishing fourth in the CONCACAF fourth round is not the end of the world for whomever would finish fourth whether it was US, Panama or Costa Rica. They have the first leg at home but like Trinidad and Tobago in 2006, they have the ability to go to Asia even if they are behind and come away with a result.

OFC – Not appearing in this World Cup

Oceania are down to their final two teams. New Zealand and the Solomon Islands will play off over two legs on the 1st and 5th of September respectively. Even though the All Whites have their second leg away in Honiara where they have lost games before; the Bonitos have traditionally played poorly in Auckland especially with an evening kick off. That being said it almost irrelevant who will win this game because neither of these teams are going to be able to beat whomever the South American 5th place qualifier will be. The task is made even more difficult by the fact that they Oceanians play their away leg second. This is a pity especially for Solomon Islands. They should have no fear from the All Whites and are capable of inflicting a defeat on them. And if they had a second leg at home in Honiara, the Bonitos could have had a realistic chance especially if they had an away goal. As it is either the All Whites or the Bonitos are going to have to try and score as many goals as possible without giving up an away goal whilst trying hard not to lose in South America. None of the prospective teams they are facing in the intercontinental play off fear them. They also have enough professionalism not to take things for granted and will give it their best, mush like Mexico in 2014. On the upside, perhaps All White or Bonito fans will get to watch Lionel Messi (if he unretires), James Rodriguez, Alexis Sanchez or Antonio Valencia in the flesh play against their national team. If either the Solomon Islands were to qualify it would arguably be the greatest upset in World Cup qualifying history, and if the All Whites did it would be the greatest performance by any sports team representing New Zealand ever. In short a very very difficult and unlikely scenario.