So it comes down to two (or still four really), and this time I get to make a fool of myself, or at least even more so than usual. My erstwhile colleague has his review of the semi-finals where he looks back over those two games, but I am looking forward to two great games; although I feel they will be great for different reasons.
Netherlands v Brazil (3rd/4th play-off)
I always feel that the 3rd/4th playoff is the hardest game for the players to play in. They are emotionally drained and still smarting from the loss, and the game ends up being won by whoever can get themselves up for the game. This years game is going to be interesting as it is between two teams who lost in such different ways. The question will be whether the team who was absolutely destroyed in the semi’s will be more ready for this than the team who threw themselves into 120 minutes of gruelling football to lose on penalties. My thoughts is that with Thiago Silva back in the centre of defense, and probably Danny Alves back at right back the fragilities so cruelly, and clinically, exposed by the Germans will disappear for the Brazilians, and having a stadium full of fans (hopefully) cheering them on they should be better than the Dutch, who have had three tense, emotionally draining games in the knockout stages. That said it could be, and I am saying will be, a high scoring affair.
Predicted Result: Brazil wins 4-2
World Cup Final Argentina v Germany
The big game, and between two of the pre-tournament favourites, promises to be an exciting affair. It is also between the team that has won by the largest margins vs the one that has won by the least. The interesting thing about that is that I have thought that the German’s have the side with the better defense that attack (although still a very very good attack) whilst Argentina are the ones with a shaky looking defense, but an almost perfect-on-paper attack. BOth teams will need to be on top of their games, and the game will obviously be decided in a moment of brilliance.
Germany are a team of overall perfection, and their dangerous players are all over the pitch, though obviously Mueller and Klose will need to be watched carefully as they seem to be good for at least a goal, with Mueller being in good contention for golden boot with 5 goals from 6 matches (one less in each stat than current top scorer James Rodriguez.) The German midfield and defense is equally as good and with Manuel Neuer in goal, it seems almost impossible to score against this German team, and that is shown by only three teams being able to manage that feat so far, out of 6 games, which makes Germany equal top in keeping clean sheets with Costa Rica, Argentina and France. They have also the most passes completed out of any team, with 3421 passes completed at a 82% completion rate. Add to that the 17 goals they have scored so far, the most of any team and 5 better than the next team Colombia, and this German team seems undefeatable, so it is no surprise that they go into this final as firm favourites ($1.57 at the NZ TAB).
Argentina on the other hand seemed like they had so much promise pre-tournament but have seemed to struggle along well below their best, but still winning. On the positive side is that they have appeared to get better with each game, and have had to rely on MEssi’s magic less and less as the tournament has gone on, which is fortunate as the better teams they have faced deeper into the tournament have been more adept at shutting the little maestro down. Obviously Messi is still the key to this game for Argentina and how he performs in the spotlight will determine Argentina’s chances. There will be a lot of pressure on Messi, most of it unwarranted, especially since there will be more and more comparisons between him and Maradonna, and between this cup and 1986 where Maradona won the cup almost single handily. That said the other Argentinean players will need to step up and support Messi to ensure Argentina succeed, and that 2014 isn’t compared to 1990 instead. Aguero, Higuain and Mascherano will need to put in top performances once more, as does Di Maria if he is fit to play. The Germans will know of the Messi threat, and will look to shut him down like every other team who has ever played him, which as always gives space to others in the team, and they will need to take full advantage of any space given. At the other end the Argentine defense will need to keep doing what they have been doing so far, keeping a clean sheet. Sergio Romano has had an outstanding tournament, and has been as good in goal as Neuer, with only 1 less save and a slightly worse saves per goal record (5 v 5.33.) The Argentine defense will need to keep playing as well as they have if they are to keep their clean sheet record, which is equal to the German’s.
Added to this is the history of this clash. Two of the best World Cup finals have been played by these two teams, in 1986 where Maradona & Argentina won 3-2 ( Maradona didn’t score any of the goals, but did set up the match winner) and then four years later in 1990, where a Brehme penalty was enough for Germany to take the cup off Argentina 1-0. Overall the sides have met 6 times at world cups, with Germany having won 3 of them, 2 draws and Argentina having only won the once, in Mexico for the cup. This third final between the two teams also makes them the two teams who have played each other the most at a World Cup Final match.
In the end I have to make a prediction, and here my preferences will shine through, where my faith in the Albiceleste is cemented in stone for ever after. Messi will have a wonder game, and be unstoppable. The germans will get at least one goal, which Mueller will score to take him within sight of the golden boot, but Messi will score a World Cup Final hat trick and pip both him and Rodriguez and also enshrining him in World Cup folklore.
Prediction Argentina win 3-2
NineSixFourTwo 