My erstwhile colleague gave his crystal ball gazing predictions for the first week of games last tuesday, and to follow that up I thought I would give you all my opinion on each team’s chances, where I think they will end up and some predictions on how the groups will finish. As we mentioned in the podcast last sunday, once you get to knock-out phases the games become more of a lottery where either team is good enough to win, although that will not stop me from having an opinion on how they will go either.
I should start out by pointing out my bias; I have always supported Argentina, and have a soft spot for England. This means I might be a little one-eyed on their chances of winning any specific game.
Group A
Brazil
Hosts and perennial favourites of the world cup, but have the sole honour of being the only team to have won the World Cup more than once, but never at home. This tournament will be immense pressure on them to perform in front of home fans which may be bad for their chances. In their favour is the relatively easy draw they have been handed, with arguably the easiest pool .Assuming they can get over the pressure from the public, the Brazilian team should be light years ahead of the other three teams in Group A in terms of skill, and I see no real issue for them to top the group. The question maybe if they can concede no goals in pool play, and if they can score more goals than Argentina.
Final Group Prediction: 1st – 9 points and 10+ goals
Final Prediction: Reach Final
Croatia
As stated in our podcast, this is not the Croatia of the early 2000’s and may struggle, especially as they will face Brazil first up, which if Brazil play to their potential has the possibility of starting Croatia’s campaign on the back foot. However Croatia is not that bad, and are a good chance of taking second place in group A. Their final outcome will depend a lot on the performance of Modic and Mandzukic as the pair attempt to create and finish chances respectively. That said my feeling is that Croatia will come up short.
Final Group Prediction: 3rd, 1 win, 2 losses
Final Prediction: Out at group stage
Mexico
As Numbernine said, he and I had the pleasure of seeing this Mexico in action when they played the All Whites for their place in the cup. Although they didn’t have their European stars, I have to agree with Numbernine in that Mexico seemed flat and let in soft goals. I don’t see their European “stars” improving the teams overall performance, as there was a reason that Mexico was playing us for a spot at the cup, and it had happened with their stars.
Final Group Prediction: 4th, 3 losses, maybe a draw with Croatia
Final Prediction: Out at group stage
Cameron
On paper Cameron is the weakest team in the group, ranked 56th in the world when the groups were picked they are the 3rd lowest ranked team in the competition. However the Cameron team is not as bad, and have recently drawn 2-2 with Germany in germany. In addition Samuel Eto’o has some points to prove and to show that he is a star player, and I am picking that this cup will be his tournament.
Final Group Prediction: 2nd, 2 wins, 1 loss
Final Prediction: Final 16
Group B
Spain
Group B is one of the groups which can rightfully lay claim to the title “Pool of Death.” First game of the group is a repeat of the 2010 final, with Spain taking on The Netherlands, and whilst my colleague is a fanatical Holland fan, I do not see them beating this Spanish side, nor do I see Chile beating them. I don’t know if Spain can go all the way and defend their title, although the draw may be friendly enough to get them to the semi’s, where they are on the same side of the draw as Argentina and that maybe as far as they go, although they will likely be strong enough to win the losers final
Final Group Prediction: 1st, 3 wins (possible 2 wins one draw, through on goal difference)
Final Prediction: 3rd
The Netherlands
The Netherlands in 2014 is not a typical Dutch team and appears to be a much more defensive team and not “total football” as they have been in the past. Recently Van Gaal has employed 5 defenders, and will likely do the same against Spain in the first game, looking to stifle the attacking talent in the spanish team, and hit them on the counter. My prediction is for the Dutch to lose that first game, but even if they manage a draw I don’t think they will have the attacking ability to score more goals that Spain in all group matches and so will end up 2nd, unless Chile can prove their potential and cause some pain and heartbreak for the Dutch. However all second place will get them will be a 2nd round game against Brazil, where I would back Brazil 9 times out of 10.
Final Group Prediction: 2nd, 2 wins, 1 loss
Final Prediction: Last 16
Chile
Chile are perhaps the most unfortunate team in the competition, being grouped with the Dutch and Spain. IN a few other groups this Chilean team would qualify for the knockout rounds, but in Group B it might be too hard for them. On the plus side they do face Australia first, which should give them some good confidence and form before they play Spain and wrap up the group stage with a probable winner take all match with The Netherlands. Unfortunately I don’t see them managing to get past the group stage.
Final Group Prediction: 3rd, 2 losses and a win
Final Prediction: Out at Group Stage
Australia
Numbernine wrapped up Australia’s chances quite well when I was talking to him earlier when he mentioned that it was nice of the FFA to buy the Australian team air flights for them to go Brazil during the world cup, though it appears they might have to buy their own tickets if they want to see the knock-out phase games. The media in Australia is talking up the chances of this team making it to the second round, though they are being laughingly one eyed in their predictions. In reality Australia’s contribution to the second round will be in how many goals they concede to each of the other teams in Group B which may end up deciding the final group standings.
Final Group Prediction: 4th, 0 wins, 0 goals
Final Prediction: Early trip home
Group C
Colombia
Both Numbernine and I thought that Colombia was going to go far in this cup, and then Falcao got injured and their chances went down. As we said in the podcast Falcao isn’t the be all and end all of the Colombian team, and as such are still a force to be reckoned with at this tournament.However I think now that the loss of Falcao will mean that the Drogba/Boney/Toure combination in Cote D’Ivoire will tip over Colombia in their head-to-head match, and thus take the top spot, leaving second to Colombia. This will leave a 2nd round match against Uruguay, the result of which may come down to whether Suarez is fit to play or not.
Final Group Prediction: 2nd, 2 wins, 1 loss
Final Prediction: 2nd Round
Cote D’Ivoire
I like Cote D’Ivoire and I think they have the goods this year. Yaya Toure is in outstanding form, Wilfried Bony and Didier Drogba are world class strikers. Their defense is solid as well as shown in their qualification progress, where they didn’t lose a game and only conceeded 7 goals during that whole campaign. I see them doing well at this tournament and going far, maybe even to a quarter final berth against Brazil, though unfortunately I don’t see them going further, even though they have the team to be the first African team to a semi final, or even in all the way to the final.
Final Group Prediction: 1st, 3 wins
Final Prediction: Quarter Final
Japan
Another unlucky team, as they are in a very competitive group, whilst at the same time lucky in that they will be very competitive with the other teams in this group and have a good chance if they play well to progress out of the group. That said their squad is youngish and un-tested with a few aging veterans who are well past their best and probably should have been pushed aside. This tournament should have been used as a building block for 2018 in Russia, and possibly 2022 in Australia Qatar. The team would also have had the additional motivation of a possible 2nd round berth, and just maybe a quarter. As it is I think the side has missed the chance, and whilst they will play well, their aging defense will not be up to containing either Cote D’Ivoire or Colombia.
Final Group Prediction: 3rd 1 win/draw, 2 loses
Final Prediction: Out at group stage
Greece
Boring boring Greece. Once again we have a defensive Greece team, which relies on holding out the opposition for 90mins and scoring just the one to win, which isn’t a bad strategy since it did win Greece the 2004 Euro Cup, and they have a team at least as good as that team this year. That said I am joining all those intellectual sports journalists and thinking that a solid defense is all good, but not enough to win out of the group phase. Colombia and Cote D’Ivoire will have too much I think and will be able to score goals against Greece. Japan might be the unlucky one and not break down the defense, but that will only be enough for 3rd in the pool. Even three 0-0 draws for Greece will not be enough, as Cote D’Ivoire and Colombia will likely beat Japan, which will give them minimum of 4 points, with the matchup being the decider for top of the table.
Final Group Prediction: 4th 3 draws or losses
Final Prediction: Out at group stage
Group D
Uruguay
Possibly their strongest team for many years, assuming Suarez is fit to play. Without him they have a good team, but I don’t think strong enough to make it to the final, with him then they will go through the knockout phases with ease, albeit that I had predicted Spain to beat them in the quarters.Will have too much class for England & Italy in the group phase.
Final Group Prediction: 1st 3 wins
Final Prediction: Quarter Finals
Italy
I am torn with England and Italy, mostly between my heart and my head. I know that Italy will be too strong for England and will win through to the knockout stages, but my English heritage and the fact I spend all year watching English football makes me want them to do well. In this I have gone with my heart, Italy will draw with England in the first game, then beat poor old Costa Rica before losing to Uruguay in the last game. Unfortunately England will have a better goal difference and progress.
Final Group Prediction: 3rd 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss wins
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
England
Ahh the England, always such hope going into a world cup, always such disappointment (save 1966) by the end. Many predict that they will not make it out of the group stage, and those people are right, I however will predict for them to make it to the 2nd round, where they will be well beaten by Cote D’Ivoire.
Final Group Prediction: 2nd 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss wins
Final Prediction: 2nd round
Costa Rica
Poor old Costa Rica. Whilst they are maybe not a good enough team to make it to the 2nd round, they are a better team than the 4th place in Group D will suggest. They will have much to say about the final standings in the group, as their performance in each of their matches will determine the final placements, though points gained and goals scored. Any draws Costa Rica get will mean that team is unlikely to go forward,.
Final Group Prediction: 4th, 3 losses
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
Group E
France
Ahh, the France of the 2014 groups, who knows what will happen in this pool. There are 3 good teams and France, and much will depend on which france shows up. Generally France go turn and turn about with awesome France and awful France; and 2010 was possibly the worst France that has ever shown up at a World Cup, which may mean that this France will be the best that has ever shown up. In any case, I ma predicting them to top the group and to win through the second round, where they will lose to Germany in the quarters.
Final Group Prediction: 1st 3 wins
Final Prediction: Quarter Finals
Switzerland
Switzerland was the seeded team picked for this group, which may come as a surprise to most people. However they have been playing a very good style, with good teamwork which will provide a good foundation for this tournament. However their style is very agressive and they are playing most of their games in the north of Brazil in the tropics, so the two other teams in their group may have their number by the end of the game
Final Group Prediction: 3rd 1 draw, 2 losses
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
Equador
A skillful attacking side, who are well acclimatized to the playing conditions. A lot will depend on their main striker,Felipe Caicedo, but will likely have the ability to beat Switzerland and Honduras. However their prize will be an exit at the 2nd round thanks to Argentina.
Final Group Prediction: 2nd 2 wins, 1 loss
Final Prediction: 2nd round
Honduras
Another team fated to finish fourth, despite being a very good team.They are completly capable of an upset or two,and may prove to be the catalyst to France’s destruction, as the two meet in the first game for the group. However I don’t think that Honduras will defy the bookies.
Final Group Prediction: 4th, 3 losses
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
Group F
Argentina
Firm favourites in my mind, Argentina have a relatively simple group to get the attacking machine working and get into the cup. They also have reasonably easy path through the second round and quarters. I see them going all the way and winning the cup, beating Brazil in the final. Messi will be outstanding and win the golden boot easily.
Final Group Prediction: 1st 3 wins
Final Prediction: Champions
Bosnia
Bosnia have a good 1st XI, and can easily win against any team with that XI. Unfortunatly they do not really have the backup, and their defense is a little old and static. In the warm up games they have been experimenting with formations to ensure they get all of their top players on the field, but also have a defense. I think they will be good enough to come second in this group, as Iran and Nigeria do not pose the threat in attack to trouble the suspect defense. They also then get to play France in the 2nd round, which is possibly the best outcome for any 2nd placed team in the competition.
Final Group Prediction: 2nd 2 wins, 1 loss
Final Prediction: 2nd Round
Iran
Iran have a good team, and may cause a few issues, though realistically the only game that would be a chance for them to get any points will be the game against Nigeria, and even then I think Nigeria will be too strong. Our dear associate, Twxt, likes the odds at the TAB for Iran and is putting a few bets on them to beat both Bosnia and Nigeria. I think this will be a loss of money.
Final Group Prediction: 4th 3 losses
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
Nigeria
Once they were a strong African nation, but now I think they are the weakest of the five teams from Africa. I don’t see them troubling Argentina or Bosnia, but being better than Iran.
Final Group Prediction: 3rd, 2 losses, 1 win
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
Group F
Germany
Germany is like Spain, the best team in a very very good group. Group F can lay equal claim to being the “Pool of Death” as Group B. The first game between Germany and Portugal will determine the rest of the round for Germany, though a draw might be better for Germany than Portugal. Germany however will be too strong, even with their injury concerns, if only because they are hurt less by the injuries to their top players. They will be strong enough, as always, to make it the Semi’s where they will meet Brazil, and I feel Brazil will be too strong with the support of the crowd.
Final Group Prediction: 1st 3 wins
Final Prediction: Semi Finals
Portugal
As we mentioned in our podcast, this is maybe Cristiano Ronaldo’s best chance of international glory, which means it is Portugal’s best chance for international glory for some time. In the good news, Ronaldo played in Portugal’s final warm up match where they thrashed Ireland 5-1, so it looks he will be fit to play in every game, and they will need him. I still think that Germany will be too strong for the one trick pony of Portugal. The second round will pair Portugal and Belgium, which will be my pick of the 2nd round clashes, and either team can win, though I think Belgium have enough to pip Portugal.
Final Group Prediction: 2nd, 2 wins 1 loss
Final Prediction: 2nd Round
Ghana
Possibly the strongest African team at the cup, but in the worst pool out of the five of them. Ghana play a strong, attacking game with a good defense, and the heat will not disturb them, so there is a very good chance they will perform well and could come anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the group. I am however picking them to be third.
Final Group Prediction: 3rd 1 win, 2 losses
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
USA
The USA is much like the Australians; they talk themselves up but will be easily beaten by all the other teams in their group. The USA team is better than the Australians, but still no where near the level of Germany, Portugal or Ghana..
Final Group Prediction: 4th, 3 losses
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
Group G
Belgium
The last pool, and also a contender for “Pool of Death”, although with no teams considered “top” teams. Belgium is a class team, packed with world class players. They should be too strong for this pool, and then should meet Portugal in the 2nd round, where I feel they will once more be too strong, before falling to Argentina at the Quarters.
Final Group Prediction: 1st 3 wins
Final Prediction: Quarter Finals
Russia
The last three teams in this group have nothing to pick between them. Russia have a team which is almost exclusively made up of players that play in Russia. They are a very strong team and will be very keen to show their ability as the next World Cup is in Russia. However my heart goes to South Korea, and I see them beating Russia to 2nd spot.
Final Group Prediction: 3rd 1 draw, 1 win, 1 loss
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
South Korea
South Korea have possibly one of their best teams since 2002, and are in a pool that means they have a very very good chance to make it into the 2nd round, and I think they will, albeit on goal difference. However once into the 2nd round they will meet Germany, and that will be as far as they go.
Final Group Prediction: 1 draw, 1 win, 1 loss
Final Prediction: 2nd round
Algeria
Algeria are not that good a team, but are in a group where they are still in contention. If they play well as a team they could provide an upset, especially since the heat shouldn’t worry them, though the humidity may. My gut feel however is for them to lose all 3 of their games.
Final Group Prediction: 4th, 3 losses
Final Prediction: Out at Group Phase
NineSixFourTwo 